A breath of fresh air for the king of cryptos? – After painfully remembering the highlights of the Bear Run 2022 Bitcoin (BTC) it is time to project ourselves to 2023 which could prove to be a tight one. And it is clear that in order to bring down the bears, it will be necessary to send the bulls heavily. Especially since the hope of a change in the Fed’s monetary policy is dwindling final minutes of the FOMC.
Nevertheless, the bitcoin price Despite this bad news from the US Federal Reserve, 2023 is off to a quiet start. So much so that many investors don’t know which foot to dance on. Worse, the king of cryptos hasn’t really reacted to the recent drop in dollar and bond interest rates over the past few months. But in the meantime, the FTX affair was there.
And in a market context that forces us to navigate by sight, we’ll comb through the latest BTC technical analysis in perspective that the lines are moving.
Bitcoin in weekly units – prices still below the Tenkan
Although Bitcoin will end the first week of 2023 slightly higher, prices always remain below the Tenkan. Feeling helpless that they are not jumping past the $16k support enough.
First, BTC Price and Chikou Span perpetuate their respective status quo below Kumo (cloud ofIchimoku).
But by not breaking $16,000 at the same time, they have the merit of limiting the break for a few weeks. Second, the crossing of the descending line of the bear run after readjusting according to recent moves does not show a strong will on the part of the bulls to challenge the bears. And lately, since mid-April 2022, the price of bitcoin hasn’t lasted long above the Tenkan.
Eventually, if the king of cryptos finally breaks out of $16,000, the financial media would be excited for a return towards $20,000. But graphically speaking the fact that the ATH 2017 is between the Tenkan and the Kijunwhich have so far developed horizontally, would represent a triple resistance that could scare off the bulls. Hence the difficult task ahead of them to neutralize Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021.
Bitcoin in Daily Units – Prices near Kumo
In daily units, there is a dead calm between the $16,000 support and the Kumo’s cap, the Senkou Span B (SSB). With it The Bitcoin course circulates in one tidy good tight. At the same time, he managed to timidly cross the Tenkanto then approach the lower limit of the Kumo, the Senkou Span A (SSA).
In the event that the king of cryptos returns to the Ichimoku Cloud and gets rid of the Kijun, we would argue the odds of a jump towards $20,000, which would itself be supported by the Kumo breakout. Which would coincide with a Chikou range that could do the same thing as BTC’s price. But to really relieve the bulls, a fresh breeze beyond ATH 2017 would be the ideal scenario. The aim is for prices to level off above Kumo in daily units for some time. This would force the bears to potentially share in their gains.
Conversely, if bitcoin prices fall back below the tenkan, A third wave of Bear Run correction could definitely reappear. On the sine qua non condition that the $16,000 runs out of water. In this case, an additional 25% downside potential would cause the bulls to retreat.
To sum up, a bitcoin that remains frozen slightly above the $16,000 support but is struggling to break free from the nearest resistances is not indicating a structural reversal. As long as we don’t witness one reassembled Prices in the direction of the kumo in weekly units would not be a basis for a sustained recovery. Suffice it to say that surpassing $20,000 would not be an end in itself.
To make matters worse, continuing the FED’s monetary tightening would hardly do the king of crypto’s business. But that this unfavorable factor is already included in the prices could not deter him.
Investors need to be cautious given the so-called calm in cryptocurrencies over the past few weeks. In this sense, a very modest allocation to this asset class remains favored in a market context where we are not immune to a black swan, ie an event of an unpredictable nature whose impact at time T no one can gauge.
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