(CercleFinance.com) – The Euro continues to fall and aligns a 3rd session at -0.8/-0.9%, towards $1.0430 (1.0418 at the lowest), again linked to expectations of a turn of the screw of 75pts and no longer 50.
The majority opinion as late as Friday morning (June 10) wanted the Fed to announce a 50 basis point hike on Wednesday when it presented its monetary policy decisions… but the 75Pts hypothesis would be close to 50% for this June 15 and 70% for the end of July (if the FED is satisfied with 50Pts in the immediate future).
The Dollar Index climbed by +0.6% to 104.70 and retraced its annual zenith at the end of May: it benefited above all from the weakness of the Pound (-1.3%) which fell to 1.2150.
It also set a new record against the yen around 135 before consolidating around 134.2 (-0.2%) and is close to parity with the Swiss franc (+0.9% to 0.9970).
Central bankers are in a delicate position: if they seem determined to fight fiercely against soaring inflation, they also risk derailing growth by curbing it.
Gold and silver, safe havens against monetary erosion and loss of confidence in currency/debt, remain weighed down by rising bond yields and are down -1.5% respectively, despite strong inflation install over time.
The ‘cryptos’ – presented as digital gold – do not serve as a refuge since the whole sector crashes by -15%, the Ethereum by -19.5% towards 1.225 (ex-zenith of January just like Solana and Dogecoin with -18%).
Bitcoin is down -16% towards $22,900 (value divided by 3 since $68,900 in mid-November)… and the road to the old record of 18,890 at the end of 2017 seems wide open. Very symbolically, the capitalization of ‘BTC’ falls below $500 billion, towards $455 billion, Ethereum weighs only $149 billion, or less than a third of BTC.
In 4th position (we exclude stablecoins), the ‘BNB’ represents only $36 billion (compared to around 100 6 months ago), Cardano and XRP (Ripple) a little over $15 billion and Solana (6th excluding stablecoin) , fell below $10 billion in ‘capi’ against $100 billion on November 7, 2021.